June 25, 2010
Talks of Greek default refuse to go away
Despite a continuous denial from the Greek government and from the European central banks, inv esters in Europe (and elsewhere) are still of the majority opinion that a default in Athens is likely (Bloomberg article by Kate Haywood):
" The cost of protecting Greek government debt from default surged to a record, signaling a 68.5 percent chance the nation will default within five years, according to CMA DataVision.
The cost of insuring $10 million of Greece’s government debt using credit-default swaps jumped as much as 13 basis points to 1,140, according to CMA. The premium investors demand to hold Greek 10-year government bonds over benchmark German bunds rose 15 basis points to 795 basis points, the widest since May 7.
"...Sovereign debt worries again weighed on risk markets,” Gary Jenkins, head of credit strategy at Evolutions Securities in London Ltd. wrote in a note. “All this and concerns about the direction of economic growth make these very frightening times.”
Greece’s probability of default rose from 48.5 percent on June 15 when its debt was cut to junk by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited the risk to economic growth from austerity measures tied to a 110 billion-euro ($164.7 billion) rescue package."
To get a sense of what this means in other terms: foreign banks hold 338 billion euros of debt from Greece!
Greece's Golden Visa program
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